Skip to main content
Back

Why demographic change requires a new set of cards

Decreasing birth rates are shining a light on Asia’s economic sustainability. In response, many governments are considering incentives to encourage larger families. These evolving policies will be vitally important, as the region looks to sustain a fast-greying population. Asia’s demographic trends may be broadly consistent, but different factors are in play depending on the birth rates and population goals in individual countries or markets.

 

 

Here are some interesting demographic numbers.


-0.5 Japan
 
The need to reverse Japan’s falling fertility rate
 
In 2020, there was another dip in Japan’s fertility rate to 1.34 (around 0.5 below the government’s target of 1.8 by 2025), which is among the lowest in the world. This ongoing weakness only adds to existing concerns about the damage this decline is having on the economy.

13% Thailand
 
Thailand’s shrinking workforce
 
Thailand’s population is ageing rapidly, and the trend shows no sign of abating. The number of people aged 65 or older is projected to rise from 13% at present to 31% in 2060. Should this increase prove accurate, it could cut 0.86% from the country’s economic growth in the 2020s.
  • How much do you know about rates?

    Recognise the different terms related to interest rates and understand how much yield global government bonds can offer.

    Read more
  • Four essential keywords related to interest rates

    Central banks in some emerging and Asian markets have started to hike rates, but deposit rates may not necessarily move in tandem. This would gradually erode depositors’ purchasing power in an inflationary environment. To achieve potential returns that beat inflation, deposit-focused investors should base any investment decisions on their risk tolerance levels and wealth management objectives.

    Read more
  • Tips to manage your budget

    Keeping an eye on income and spending is not easy. However, working to a budget can simplify matters. Once you have established a reliable system that tracks your money, you’ll find it easier to take control of your finances.

    Read more
See all

2=SGD 31,000 Singapore
 
Improved baby bonus in Singapore
 
Among the steps being taken in Singapore to halt a decreasing fertility rate is an increase in the baby bonus paid by the government on the birth of a second child. Eligible couples receive a cash gift and a development account that parents can match dollar for dollar. This account can be used to fund the child’s education and healthcare expenses. The terms of these payments were enhanced to as much as SGD 31,000 in 2021 as an incentive for families to have two children.

12 million China
 
China now allows three-children families
 
Census data in China showed that around 12 million babies were born in 2020, a notable fall from 18 million in 2016. Of greater concern is the fact that it was the lowest number of births recorded since the 1960s. Some observers believe that the main deterrent is the high cost of raising children in cities. Nevertheless, some people have decided to give birth a second time, and a further policy change targets this group. In May 2021, China increased the permitted number of children to three.

2 India
 
India looking to limit childbirth rates
 
India’s two most populous states have taken steps to ensure that families have no more than two children. In its largest state, Uttar Pradesh, where population density is more than double the country’s average, the state government is proposing legislation that would mean couples with more than two children would be denied benefits or subsidies. What’s more, they would be prevented from working for the local authority. A range of incentives is available to couples who sign up for sterilisation, including financial assistance to help buy or build a home.

3 Indonesia
 
Indonesia seeks birth reductions
 
Similarly, Indonesia also sees growth in its population. At present, the fertility rate is three children per woman. The government wants to bring that number down to an average of 2.1 by 2025. In response, the authorities are looking at measures that will reduce current numbers. These include family planning initiatives and improved contraception, as well as encouraging people to delay marriage until later in life.

Download full PDF

 

Manulife Investment Management is the global wealth and asset management segment of Manulife Financial Corporation. The information and/or analysis contained in this material have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable at the time of writing but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof or the information and/or analysis contained herein. Neither Manulife Investment Management or its affiliates, nor any of their directors, officers or employees shall assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained herein.

This material was prepared solely for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer, solicitation or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security. Nothing in this material constitutes financial, investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Investment involves risk. In considering any investment, if you are in doubt on the action to be taken, you should consult professional advisers.

Proprietary Information – Please note that this material must not be wholly or partially reproduced, distributed, circulated, disseminated, published or disclosed, in any form and for any purpose, to any third party without prior approval from Manulife Investment Management.

These materials have not been reviewed by, are not registered with any securities or other regulatory authority, and may, where appropriate, be distributed by the following Manulife entities in their respective jurisdictions.

Malaysia: Manulife Investment Management (M) Berhad 200801033087 (834424-U). Singapore: Manulife Investment Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration Number: 200709952G). Philippines: Manulife Asset Management and Trust Corporation. Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong: Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited in Hong Kong and has not been reviewed by the HK Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).

14 December 2021

Decreasing birth rates are shining a light on Asia’s economic sustainability. In response, many governments are considering incentives to encourage larger families. These evolving policies will be vitally important, as the region looks to sustain a fast-greying population. Asia’s demographic trends may be broadly consistent, but different factors are in play depending on the birth rates and population goals in individual countries or markets.

Here are some interesting demographic numbers.

-0.5 Japan

The need to reverse Japan’s falling fertility rate

In 2020, there was another dip in Japan’s fertility rate to 1.34 (around 0.5 below the government’s target of 1.8 by 2025), which is among the lowest in the world. This ongoing weakness only adds to existing concerns about the damage this decline is having on the economy.

13% Thailand

 

Thailand’s shrinking workforce

Thailand’s population is ageing rapidly, and the trend shows no sign of abating. The number of people aged 65 or older is projected to rise from 13% at present to 31% in 2060. Should this increase prove accurate, it could cut 0.86% from the country’s economic growth in the 2020s.

2=SGD 31,000 Singapore

 

Improved baby bonus in Singapore

Among the steps being taken in Singapore to halt a decreasing fertility rate is an increase in the baby bonus paid by the government on the birth of a second child. Eligible couples receive a cash gift and a development account that parents can match dollar for dollar. This account can be used to fund the child’s education and healthcare expenses. The terms of these payments were enhanced to as much as SGD 31,000 in 2021 as an incentive for families to have two children.

12 million China

 

China now allows three-children families

Census data in China showed that around 12 million babies were born in 2020, a notable fall from 18 million in 2016. Of greater concern is the fact that it was the lowest number of births recorded since the 1960s. Some observers believe that the main deterrent is the high cost of raising children in cities. Nevertheless, some people have decided to give birth a second time, and a further policy change targets this group. In May 2021, China increased the permitted number of children to three.

2 India

 

India looking to limit childbirth rates

India’s two most populous states have taken steps to ensure that families have no more than two children. In its largest state, Uttar Pradesh, where population density is more than double the country’s average, the state government is proposing legislation that would mean couples with more than two children would be denied benefits or subsidies. What’s more, they would be prevented from working for the local authority. A range of incentives is available to couples who sign up for sterilisation, including financial assistance to help buy or build a home.

3 Indonesia

 

Indonesia seeks birth reductions

Similarly, Indonesia also sees growth in its population. At present, the fertility rate is three children per woman. The government wants to bring that number down to an average of 2.1 by 2025. In response, the authorities are looking at measures that will reduce current numbers. These include family planning initiatives and improved contraception, as well as encouraging people to delay marriage until later in life.

  • Transitioning to India’s next stage of growth

    India’s growth agenda are well embedding the primary driver of digitisation that supports the formalisation and reinvestment policies underpinning manufacturing expansion. This is starting to show results with visibly improved capital expenditure and industrial order books, as well as a narrowing current-account deficit and a healthier inflationary picture.

    Read more
  • Q&A with the Portfolio Manager: Global Healthcare Equities

    COVID-19 is largely behind us in terms of a global health crisis and a hard hit to global financial markets. Yet, amid a widely predicted economic recession, the world is adjusting to the post-pandemic era. In this Q&A, we highlight how our Global Healthcare Team adopts a differentiated approach by triangulating its investment thesis and quantifying key inputs into the investment framework.

    Read more
  • India Equity Thought Leadership: Transitioning to India’s next stage of growth

    We present how structural government reforms since 2014 gave rise to key growth drivers such as formalisation, creation of digital and physical infrastructure, and domestic manufacturing incentives, which, in turn, bolstered the economy’s resiliency. They will also introduce the emerging “Four Ds” – Digitisation, Deglobalisation, Decarbonisation, and Demography – which are new growth drivers slated to transform the country’s commercial environment.

    Read more
See all

Help us to serve you betterClick here to find out how you can update your Information today!

View more

Help us to serve you betterClick here to find out how you can update your Information today!

View more
Confirm